Between the initial calculations and now, my Box Office Power Rankings-derived formula has not changed its Oscar conclusion: No Country for Old Men is still your Best Picture winner on Sunday.
The only movement involved the improved fortunes of There Will Be Blood and Atonement at the expense of Michael Clayton. The final standings: No Country for Old Men (15.0 points); Juno (14.3 points); There Will Be Blood (13.3 points); Atonement (10.7 points); and Michael Clayton (6.7 points).
The order feels intuitively correct, and the only thing that would surprise me (and rebuke my methodology) would be a Best Picture win by Atonement or Michael Clayton.
That said, I will defy my own carefully considered formula and predict a Juno win. No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood are too similar in tone, and both are too open.
I keep thinking Atonement is going to pull a surprise win like Shakespeare in Love did over Saving Private Ryan. Atonement just feels like an Oscar-friendlier flick over the killers, oil tyrants & pregnant teens its competing against. But I’m hoping for the Coens to pull out a win.
Chris: As much as people are predicting with certainty a No Country win, I agree that this race could go any way.
Many people passionately love the Coens’ and Anderson’s movies, but they’re difficult. Juno is popular. Atonement reeks of Oscar bait. And Michael Clayton might be the safest of the bunch, with its anti-corporate politics and crowd-pleasing finale.